Publicacións

@article{bermudez_robust_2020,

title = {A Robust Method to Update Local River Inundation Maps Using Global Climate Model Output and Weather Typing Based Statistical Downscaling},

author = {María Bermúdez and Luis Cea-Gómez and E. Van Uytven and P. Willems and Juan F. Farfán-Durán and Jerónimo Puertas-Agudo},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02673-7},

doi = {10.1007/s11269-020-02673-7},

issn = {1573-1650},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-11-01},

urldate = {2026-08-06},

journal = {Water Resources Management},

volume = {34},

number = {14},

pages = {4345–4362},

abstract = {Global warming is changing the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. This requires updating local rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and flood hazard maps according to the future climate scenarios. This is, however, far from straightforward, given our limited ability to model the effects of climate change on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall at small scales. In this study, we develop a robust method to update local IDF relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes using Global Climate Model (GCM) data, and we apply it to a coastal town in NW Spain. First, the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation, described by means of Lamb Circulation Type classification (LCT), and rainfall events with potential for flood generation is analyzed. A broad ensemble set of GCM runs is used to identify frequency changes in LCTs, and to assess the occurrence of flood generating events in the future. In a parallel way, we use this Weather Type (WT) classification and climate-flood linkages to downscale rainfall from GCMs, and to determine the IDF curves for the future climate scenarios. A hydrological-hydraulic modeling chain is then used to quantify the changes in flood maps induced by the IDF changes. The results point to a future increase in rainfall intensity for all rainfall durations, which consequently results in an increased flood hazard in the urban area. While acknowledging the uncertainty in the GCM projections, the results show the need to update IDF standards and flood hazard maps to reflect potential changes in future extreme rainfall intensities.},

keywords = {Climate change, Extreme floods, rainfall variability, Statistical downscaling, Weather types},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{bermudez_quantifying_2019,

title = {Quantifying the role of individual flood drivers and their correlations in flooding of coastal river reaches},

author = {María Bermúdez and Luis Cea-Gómez and Javier Sopelana},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01733-8},

doi = {10.1007/s00477-019-01733-8},

issn = {1436-3259},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-10-01},

urldate = {2026-08-05},

journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},

volume = {33},

number = {10},

pages = {1851–1861},

abstract = {Flooding in coastal river reaches is the result of complex interactions between coastal and inland drivers. Flood hazard assessments need to consider how these drivers interact in space and time, for which a standard method is currently lacking. A complex hydrodynamic model is required to reproduce the physics of the combined forcings and, at the same time, to fully explore the combinations of drivers that can occur in order to determine extreme flood frequencies. In this work, we explore the individual role of astronomical tide, storm surge and river discharge and their correlations in the extreme flood levels of a coastal river reach. We apply a computationally efficient surrogate model of a 2D shallow water model based on least squares support vector machines regression to reconstruct 10,000 years-long time series of water levels in the reach. As input to the model, we consider an ensemble of synthetic time series of the flood drivers, which differ in the number of variables considered and in their correlations. Probabilities of exceedance of water levels are then computed and compared. The proposed methodology can give a better understanding of the flooding processes in a multivariable environment, as low-lying coastal urban areas typically are, and can provide guidance on where to focus modelling efforts when developing flood hazard assessments in such areas.},

keywords = {Coastal river reach, Compound flooding, Extreme floods, Flood inundation modelling, LS-SVM},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}