Publicacións

@article{bermudez_robust_2020,

title = {A Robust Method to Update Local River Inundation Maps Using Global Climate Model Output and Weather Typing Based Statistical Downscaling},

author = {María Bermúdez and Luis Cea-Gómez and E. Van Uytven and P. Willems and Juan F. Farfán-Durán and Jerónimo Puertas-Agudo},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02673-7},

doi = {10.1007/s11269-020-02673-7},

issn = {1573-1650},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-11-01},

urldate = {2026-08-06},

journal = {Water Resources Management},

volume = {34},

number = {14},

pages = {4345–4362},

abstract = {Global warming is changing the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. This requires updating local rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and flood hazard maps according to the future climate scenarios. This is, however, far from straightforward, given our limited ability to model the effects of climate change on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall at small scales. In this study, we develop a robust method to update local IDF relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes using Global Climate Model (GCM) data, and we apply it to a coastal town in NW Spain. First, the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation, described by means of Lamb Circulation Type classification (LCT), and rainfall events with potential for flood generation is analyzed. A broad ensemble set of GCM runs is used to identify frequency changes in LCTs, and to assess the occurrence of flood generating events in the future. In a parallel way, we use this Weather Type (WT) classification and climate-flood linkages to downscale rainfall from GCMs, and to determine the IDF curves for the future climate scenarios. A hydrological-hydraulic modeling chain is then used to quantify the changes in flood maps induced by the IDF changes. The results point to a future increase in rainfall intensity for all rainfall durations, which consequently results in an increased flood hazard in the urban area. While acknowledging the uncertainty in the GCM projections, the results show the need to update IDF standards and flood hazard maps to reflect potential changes in future extreme rainfall intensities.},

keywords = {Climate change, Extreme floods, rainfall variability, Statistical downscaling, Weather types},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{cea_incorporating_2018,

title = {Incorporating Antecedent Moisture Conditions and Intraevent Variability of Rainfall on Flood Frequency Analysis in Poorly Gauged Basins},

author = {Luis Cea-Gómez and Ignacio Fraga},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018WR023194},

doi = {10.1029/2018WR023194},

issn = {1944-7973},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

urldate = {2026-08-04},

journal = {Water Resources Research},

volume = {54},

number = {11},

pages = {8774–8791},

abstract = {Rainfall-runoff models are frequently used for the prediction of flood discharges from extreme rainfall data in poorly gauged basins. However, the conventional methods used to estimate the frequency of flood discharges from precipitation data do not incorporate a realistic representation of the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall at the study site nor of the antecedent soil moisture content. Temporally and spatially idealized rainfall patterns that do not represent properly the intraevent variability of rainfall are in general assumed. In this paper, we propose a methodology for flood frequency analysis based on the hydrological simulation of potentially hazardous real storm events. The aim of the proposed method is to incorporate the impact of the spatial and temporal intraevent variability of rainfall on flood discharge estimates without making strong assumptions about the spatial and temporal patterns of storms. It also includes a calibrated relation between the antecedent rainfall depth and the soil infiltration capacity, in order to consider the combined effect of antecedent soil moisture content and rainfall intensity. The flood frequency estimates obtained with the proposed methodology are compared to those estimated with a conventional method based on the definition of synthetic design hyetographs from local intensity-duration-frequency curves. The analysis is presented in two watersheds of 84 and 353 km2 located in the NW of Spain. Results highlight the role of the antecedent soil moisture in flood frequency analysis and show that the conventional methodology tends to overestimate the flood discharges when compared to the proposed approach.},

keywords = {antecedent soil moisture, flood frequency analysis, Hydrological modeling, poorly gauged basins, rainfall variability, storm rainfall},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}