Publicacións

@article{ceragene_risk-based_2023,

title = {A Risk-Based Approach for the Analysis of Flood Impact in Villahermosa (Tabasco, Mexico)},

author = {Mackendy Ceragene and Rosanna Bonasia and Luis Cea-Gómez and Maria de la O. Cuevas-Cancino},

url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/22/3969},

doi = {10.3390/w15223969},

issn = {2073-4441},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

urldate = {2026-08-13},

journal = {Water},

volume = {15},

number = {22},

pages = {3969},

publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},

abstract = {Floods in Villahermosa are events that have occurred frequently over the centuries, due to the city’s location at the mouth of two of the most powerful rivers in Mexico. Flooding effects on residents have become increasingly damaging over the years as a consequence of the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena, in addition to poor land-use planning policies. The increase in population and consequent urban expansion are certainly causes of the problem, which are reflected in poor urban planning policy and in an almost absent perception of risk. In this work, we present a methodology for the construction of flood risk maps based on a hydraulic study, analysis of social vulnerability indexes, calculation of severity indexes and construction of hazard maps. The results of the hydraulic simulations show that relatively frequent rainfall causes floods of the order of 2 m, in agreement with annual observations conducted in Villahermosa. More extreme rainfall can lead to flooding greater than 4 m in marginalized areas of the city. The areas at greatest risk are sections close to the rivers that cross the city, and the estimated economic damage is greater than USD 14 million. Risk maps presented here constitute the first effort of an integrated study to couple flood analysis with the calculation of economic damage in the city of Villahermosa, and provide important tools to conscientize populations in their perception of risk, but also create the basis for a conscious urbanization policy.},

keywords = {flood hazard assessment, flood risk maps, Iber, social vulnerability, Villahermosa},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{areu-rangel_impact_2019,

title = {Impact of Urban Growth and Changes in Land Use on River Flood Hazard in Villahermosa, Tabasco (Mexico)},

author = {Omar S. Areu-Rangel and Luis Cea-Gómez and Rosanna Bonasia and Victor J. Espinosa-Echavarria},

url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/2/304},

doi = {10.3390/w11020304},

issn = {2073-4441},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-02-01},

urldate = {2026-08-05},

journal = {Water},

volume = {11},

number = {2},

pages = {304},

publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},

abstract = {The city of Villahermosa, a logistical center in the State of Tabasco’s economy, is affected by recurrent river floods. In this study, we analyzed the impact of two factors that are the most probable causes of this increase in flood hazard: changes in land use in the hydrological catchments upstream of the city, and the uncontrolled urbanization of the floodplains adjacent to the main river channels. Flood discharges for different return periods were evaluated, considering land uses of the catchments, both as they were in 1992 and as they are today. These flood discharges were then used in a 2D shallow water model to estimate the increase of water depths in the city from 1992 to the present day. To evaluate the influence of urban expansion on inundation levels, three future urbanization scenarios were proposed on the basis of the urban growth rate forecast for 2050. Results confirm that the change in land use in the hydrological catchments is the main factor that explains the increase in inundation events observed over recent years. This study also provides useful insights for future city planning that might help to minimize the flood impact on Villahermosa.},

keywords = {flood hazard, land use, Urban growth, Villahermosa},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}